Promoting Electrotechnology Careers and Public Policy

Current Perspectives on
Information Technology Labor Markets

Remarks By

Ron Hira

to the

Committee to Study Workforce Needs
in Information Technology
Computer Science and Telecommunication Board
National Research Council

On behalf of the
The Institute of Electrical and Electronics
Engineers - United States of America

July 6, 1999

Introductory Remarks

Good afternoon! I am Ron Hira from Rossyln, Virginia. I am an Assistant Research Engineer and a Ph.D. student in Science and Technology Policy at George Mason University's Institute of Public Policy in Fairfax, Virginia.  I have a B.S. degree in Electrical Engineering from Carnegie Mellon and an M.S.E.E. from GMU. I've worked as a regional manager for the Manufacturing Extension Program at NIST and as a design engineer and consultant for the General Motors Research Lab and the Rand Corporation's Critical Technology Institute. I also serve as a volunteer member of IEEE-USA's Research and Development Policy Committee.

The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers is a transnational professional society made up of more than 350,000 electrical, electronics and computer engineers in 147 countries. IEEE-USA promotes the professional careers and technology policy interests of IEEE's 225,000 U.S. members.  My own knowledge of how information technology and economic change are affecting engineering careers comes from first hand experience in educational programs and the job market for electrical and electronics engineers as well as from my personal interest in economics and social science research.

I appreciate this opportunity to participate in this first public meeting of CSTB's Information Technology Workforce Study Committee and to present some of my professional society's perspectives on current and projected labor markets for IT workers, including engineers and computer scientists.  For its part, IEEE-USA is pleased that these studies (of labor market needs for workers with information technology skills and the treatment of older workers in the information technology field) are being conducted under the very thorough and impartial auspices of the National Research Council.

If any organization can get beyond the rhetoric to the reality of current and projected supply and demand in information technology labor markets, the NRC (with advice and guidance from this distinguished panel of experts) certainly ought to be able to.

Current Labor Market Conditions
for Core IT Workers

As the Department of Commerce suggests in it's latest report on America's information technology workforce, the question of whether or not there is a shortage of core IT workers (computer engineers and scientists, systems analysts and programmers) has generated much more heat than light in recent years. And as in most debates about complex policy issues, the nature and dimensions of the question depend, in large part, on who you talk to. Most employers see the problem as a worker shortage of crisis proportions. They point to declining degree trends in computer science and engineering in recent years and inadequate preparation of many elementary and secondary students for high tech careers to support their contention that supply is and will continue to be insufficient to meet increasing worldwide demands for trained technical professionals.

Employees and employee advocacy organizations, including IEEE-USA, -- while acknowledging increasing demand and tight labor markets -- believe that the supply of technical professionals is much broader and deeper than is generally assumed. We also admit that the accelerating pace and intensity of technological change coupled with increasing competitive pressures to deliver more and better products and services faster and more cheaply than ever before is outpacing the ability of labor market mechanisms to correct imbalances in supply and demand in certain, very specialized markets for IT workers.

Economists argue that tight labor markets and spot shortages of workers with very specific knowledge, skills and experience are inevitable short-term results of the increasing importance of information technology in all sectors of the nation's economy. In the long run, they insist that market forces will work to correct these temporary imbalances.

Challenges Facing the National Research Council

One challenge facing the National Research Council and this advisory committee, therefore, is to conduct an objective analysis of often conflicting information, opinions and perceptions about information technology labor markets and the demand for experienced, mid-career and older professionals in an industry that puts a premium on presumably more technology-savvy, younger workers. The other is to formulate practical recommendations that will enable stakeholders in business, education, government and worker organizations to resolve their differences, identify shared interests and promote cooperative efforts to improve the nation's technological competitiveness through improved education and training at all levels and better management and utilization of America's intellectual capital, including it's core IT workers. 

As IEEE-USA sees it, the National Research Council Study Committee must find answers to at least four fundamental questions:

1. How responsive are IT labor markets to imbalances in supply and demand created by continuing increases in the pace, intensity and pervasiveness of technological change in a knowledge-based global economy?
2. What factors impede the recruitment, retraining and retention of mid-career and older professionals by employers of IT workers?
3. What are the primary obstacles to increased participation by traditionally underrepresented groups (including women, ethnic minorities, the handicapped and economically disadvantaged) in America's IT workforce? And 4)
4. What is the appropriate role of government (and other stakeholders) in helping to make IT labor markets function more effectively?

Responsiveness of IT Labor Markets

IEEE-USA is convinced that if the various stakeholders -- businesses, educators, governments, labor organizations, professional societies and industry trade associations - all work together, Americans can successfully meet the IT workforce challenge. Labor markets are already showing signs of responding to increasing demands:

• After several years of declines, educational enrollments are increasing in IT-related disciplines. Bachelor's level enrollments in computer engineering and computer science, for example, have more than doubled in the past three years.
• Universities and community colleges are responding to increased demand with specialized IT training programs and proprietary schools and company-sponsored IT certification programs are growing in number and popularity.
• Many employers are increasing on-the-job training and more IT professionals are taking steps to update their technical, communications and managerial knowledge and skills.
• Stakeholders are working together to organize industry-education-community partnerships and skills alliances to expand IT training at the state, regional and local levels.  But much more information is needed to identify and correct impediments and inefficiencies in specialized IT labor markets as well as to understand critical factors that affect supply and demand for core IT workers. These include real qualifications for employment, barriers to more effective utilization of mid-career and older workers and the impact of increasing foreign participation in the IT enterprise on educational and employment opportunities for traditionally underrepresented sources of supply, including women, minorities, the handicapped and economically disadvantaged Americans.

Mid-Career and Older Workers

In the midst of tight labor markets, mid-career and older workers continue to report difficulty securing and maintaining employment in IT fields.  There is a widespread perception in the new information economy, that the knowledge and skills that come with experience count for less and less and that mid-career and older workers lack the needed flexibility and adaptability as well as the willingness and ability to keep up with rapidly changing technologies.  IEEE-USA disagrees with and is committed to disproving this unfortunate perception.

Opportunities for Under-Represented Groups

Despite modest gains since the late 1980's, women, certain ethnic minorities, handicapped and disadvantaged Americans continue to be underrepresented in many scientific and engineering fields. And although the proportion of women, Blacks, Hispanics and native Americans in high school graduating classes is increasing, such individuals continue to be much less likely than white males to pursue careers in these fields.  Among the impediments to greater participation by underrepresented groups include pervasive cultural biases, inadequate educational preparation in math and science at the elementary and secondary levels, low expectations and non-supportive attitudes on the part of many educators, and a lack of mentors in traditionally white male dominated professions and occupations.

Although all this is beginning to change, we recommend that the committee identify barriers that continue to limit the participation of under-represented groups in the IT workforce. We also recommend that NRC re-examine the potentially adverse affects of increasing foreign participation in America's engineering enterprise on educational and employment opportunities for individuals from these groups. This issue was initially explored in a 1988 NRC report.

Role of Government and Other Stakeholders

Finally we recommend that NRC and its study committee carefully examine the appropriate role of government and other stakeholders (including businesses, educators and other public and private sector organizations, in the operation of IT labor markets and in helping make these markets work more effectively and efficiently.

In closing, IEEE-USA will welcome further opportunities to present its perspectives on all of these important and often controversial issues. We would also urge you to add additional balance to the interests represented on the study committee by appointing a qualified individual or two from concerned professional societies and IT worker organizations.

Finally, I would like to share a short personal story that has left an indelible impression on me. My late father was an Electrical Engineer and was employed by one of the nation's largest engineering firms in the 1970's. In 1977, after 9 years with the company, he was laid off at the age of 46. He couldn't get an interview let alone another job for many months. Finally after 6 months he was able to land an engineering position, but it paid 40 percent less that he was previously earning. Was this because he was unqualified? I don't think so. By all accounts he was a solid contributor. He had received good reviews, earned a Professional Engineer's license and had never been out of work before.

The reason that he was unemployed was that he worked in the electric power industry, selling gas and steam turbines to power plants. In the early 70's, worldwide electric power consumption was expected to continue to grow exponentially. But by the mid 70's, the bottom fell out of the market for electric power. He was in the wrong industry at the wrong time. There are two lessons to be drawn from this story. First, there's one and only one guarantee about forecasting - it's usually always sure to be proven wrong. Second, technological innovation works in a number of ways. Classical economist David Schumpeter once described the process of innovation as one of creative destruction. While innovation creates many new jobs, it also destroys many old ones. This isn't bad - technological change is an incredible wealth creator, but it comes with costs as well as benefits. In the 1970' s, forecasters failed to anticipate an important side effect of innovation in the electric power industry - energy conservation.

As an engineer, I'm optimistic that we can solve technical problems and continue to make technological and economic progress. But I also wonder how the automation of IT design and development functions will affect demand for IT workers in the early years of the next century.  The most important role of markets is to allocate resources efficiently.  Why not let them work?

People make bold statements such as, "We're at the dawn of a new era…," and "The information revolution will change production systems more radically than either of the two preceding industrial revolutions…," and "Decisions are being made at the speed of thought." But I'm a great believer in the need for sober and systematic analysis of complex issues and in learning from the lessons of the past.  As much as some things seem to be changing rapidly, most things still change at a much slower pace. I implore the committee to take the necessary time to thoroughly explore underlying problems and issues before beginning to think about solutions. One of my professors likes to say that "A lot of people like to work in answer space," meaning that they frequently have the answers to problems in hand and aren't really interested in doing any kind of preliminary analysis. I trust that this committee won't be working in "answer space."

Thank you.

Last Update: July 8, 1999
Staff Contact: Vin O'Neill, v.oneill@ieee.org